Using A RantAWeek to clarify the complexities of news.
19.37 Tyler Miksanek
And after complete results come in, we will post an in-depth article tomorrow evening that recaps Florida and explains what to expect in the coming weeks.
19.35 Matthew Dudak
With Romney winning Florida by a comfortable margin, he has regained his momentum. At this point in time, he seems very likely to win the nomination, and his chances against Obama seem strong. We hope you have enjoyed this live blog, and we hope to hold several more of these as the election season goes on. We will always post on the main page when we have one coming up, so please join us next time! As always, check back for more analysis from RantAWeek soon.
19.33 Julia Nusgart
Angela- I completely agree. Another factor is how much blame Obama will take for the state of the economy because he is the current President.
19.33 Angela Yang
I agree that his popularity in November will rely heavily on the state of the economy.
19.32 Tyler Miksanek
Assuming that Romney can keep his 15% lead for the remainder of the evening, this will turn out to be a big win for him. South Carolina failed to give Gingrich a needed boost.
19.26 Julia Nusgart
I think Obama might be able to win Flordia like he did in 2008 because he knows where to campaign and was popular among Latino voters.
19.25 Matthew Dudak
His chances seem much greater than those of any other candidates. His position as a social moderate(for the most part), and fiscal conservative sets him up to attract most Republicans for sure. Especially since he has been doing well amongst the more adamant conservatives who generally show up at the primaries, his chances are good. Add on top of that the fact that he will get the more moderate Republicans who have not turned out at primaries, he stands a very good chance. With that said, the deciding factor will likely be what Obama is able to do with the economy between now and November.
19.22 Tyler Miksanek
But I am thinking Romney vs. Obama, who wins Florida, and why? And Florida is crucial… since 1972, whoever has won Florida has won the White House.
19.21 Angela Yang
Whoever wins Florida will most likely be the nominee and Romney’s moderate tone will definitely help him if he ends up going against Obama.
19.15 Tyler Miksanek
So Paul could still be here for a while. Another question for the panel, what do you think of Romney’s prospects here in November? (Assuming he’s the nominee.)
19.15 Julia Nusgart
Gingrich might still have a very small chance, but Santorum and Paul are inching their way along.
19.14 Matthew Dudak
Paul stayed in until June in ’08. This may actually indicate that Paul will likely stick around much longer. However, chances are, he will continue to fade.
19.12 Tyler Miksanek
How long did Paul stick around in ’08?
19.11 Matthew Dudak
Well Florida was most certainly not the nail-biter like Iowa that we started this race with. Gingrich still has a chance, but Romney’s consistency still bodes well for him. Meanwhile, it seems as if Santorum and Paul are mattering less and less and seem likely to drop out soon.
19.10 Angela Yang
After the loss in South Carolina and recent funds for Gingrich, Romney has been stepping up is game in Florida so his lead doesn’t surprise me.
19.08 Matthew Dudak
When looking at exit polls, they reveal that although Romney started falling behind with lower income groups, eventually he swept almost all voters across the board. The only exception were those who hold very conservative views. With most of those going to Gingrich, but Romney still getting more of them than Santorum.
19.07 Julia Nusgart
Despite the tax return Romney still has the lead by 47.4%.
19.04 Tyler Miksanek
Romney is also doing very well among Latino voters. This could bode well for him in a general election.
19.02 Tyler Miksanek
Interesting. Still, the tax returns have not had as big of an effect as many originally thought.
18.58 Matthew Dudak
It also seems that Romney’s recent release of his tax return, which revealed a forty-five million dollar income over the past two years has turned many off in Florida. Most counties that have a median income under forty thousand have voted Gingrich. This income effect was not clear in Iowa or New Hampshire.
18.57 Tyler Miksanek
Over half of precincts reporting and Romney is still near 50% of the vote. I’m impressed: this is a strong showing for him.
18.55 Matthew Dudak
This is true, however, he realises what his candidacy as an Independent would do to the Republican party. It has happened time and again in history.
18.55 Angela Yang
With over 50% reported, Paul only has 7% of the vote.
18.54 Tyler Miksanek
MD- Just because a politician says something…
18.53 Matthew Dudak
No, considering the fact that he has come out and firmly stated he will not. However, before he said that, it seemed inevitable. I think he simply fears taking away votes from the Republican candidate. He feels he will not have enough momentum to do very well as an Independent, and would rather see a Republican in the White House than Obama.
18.53 Julia Nusgart
Ron Paul will probably not run as an independent because it would look bad for his son, Rand Paul, who in the future wants to run for the Presidency as a Republican candidate.
18.50 Tyler Miksanek
Do you think he will enter as an Independent later this year?
18.49 Matthew Dudak
People are also getting tired of both parties and see Paul as someone that completely floats above party lines, despite running as a Republican. This position bodes well with many. Although it also turns many away.
18.47 Tyler Miksanek
I think Paul’s libertarian message has increased power with the recent deficit problems, not to mention the poor state of the economy at large.
18.45 Matthew Dudak
Ron Paul has surpassed his numbers in 2008, clearly he has much more momentum this year.
18.43 Julia Nusgart
I wonder how many people voted for Colbert solely for the purpose of saying, “I voted for a comedian for the president of the USA.”
18.42 Tyler Miksanek
South Carolina was over a week ago though.
18.41 Matthew Dudak
On the other hand, South Carolina may not have had that large of an effect as over 3/4ths of voters have had their decision in mind for over several days.
18.41 Julia Nusgart
Gingrich is still behind Romney, but it seems like he might be starting to catch up.
18.40 Tyler Miksanek
Hey, Colbert got Cain a few thousand votes in South Carolina. Maybe that ‘momentum’ carries over.
18.36 Matthew Dudak
Early voting is also very evident in the fact that Perry, Hunstman, Bachmann, Cain and even Gary Johnson still receiving votes.
18.34 Tyler Miksanek
Told you that early voting would give Romney an unfair boost. I wouldn’t expect him to keep a 50% share of the vote.
18.33 Matthew Dudak
Based on past performance, Paul will likely never drop out. However, Santorum seems likely to drop out soon, it is just a matter of time. His votes will likely almost exclusively go to Gingrich.
18.33 Angela Yang
Mr. Gingrich is slowly catching up!
18.31 Tyler Miksanek
Santorum and Paul are still having a huge effect on this race. Assuming that the majority of their support would go to the more conservative Gingrich, either one dropping out would help him out a lot. Paul doesn’t seem ready to drop out, but I’m wondering if Santorum may soon call it quits.
18.26 Tyler Miksanek
The counties that house Jacksonville and Tallahassee also have impressive populations.
18.26 Matthew Dudak
Miami-Dade is one of the most populated counties in Florida.
18.25 Matthew Dudak
To clarify, the amount of precincts reporting that I have posted about have come from CNN, but The New York Times shows considerably less reporting.
18.25 Angela Yang
Why is Miami-Dade so important?
18.20 Matthew Dudak
With 21% reporting. Romney is sitting with a fairly comfortable lead, about doubling Gingrich’s votes. However, it is important to note that important counties like Miami-Dade have not even begun reporting.
18.19 Tyler Miksanek
Yes, but Florida is a winner-take-all state delegate wise, meaning that smaller candidates like Santorum and Paul did not try to campaign heavily here.
18.18 Matthew Dudak
As an interesting note, since Florida was one of the many sates to move their primaries to before Feb 1st, they have been punished by the Republican National Committee and actual lost 49 of the 99 delegates that should have resulted from this primary.
18.14 Tyler Miksanek
It’s important to recognize that most of these early reports come from early voting. Much of this early voting was from before Newt won in South Carolina, meaning any momentum he receives from S.C. will not be factored in until later in the evening.
18.13 Matthew Dudak
I would say that Rubio stands a strong chance at being considered as either a running mate or a cabinet member too.
18.12 Tyler Miksanek
Definitely, Rubio is one of those new Republican leaders who we may see running in future presidential elections.
18.10 Matthew Dudak
And with 8% reporting, Romney jumps to the lead. Too soon to say anything yet.
18.07 Matthew Dudak
Interesting to factor into this primary will be the effect that Marco Rubio’s supporters will have on the results.-MD
18.04 Tyler Miksanek
Dinner… I don’t need dinner. Exit poll statistics are all I need. But in seriousness… things don’t look that cheery for Newt Gingrich right now. He had a lead in the polls following his solid win in South Carolina. However, that lead seemingly disappeared, but I guess tonight will prove his current standings. – TM
18.01 Matthew Dudak
Precincts should start reporting any minute!
17.21 Matthew Dudak
Welcome to the Florida Primary Live Blog! The action will begin at 7p.m. ET or 6p.m. CST, stay tuned!